European football attendance trends: Is Northern European football in crisis?

9 Jul

Well, it is according to my latest graph…

European football attendance changes

What I’ve done here is to take the average attendance figures  for a range of European top-flight divisions over a period beginning with the season ending 2007 right up to the latest season, ending 2013. I’ve calculated the rate of percentage growth each season and then divided this to produce an average rate of growth for each country. Doing this eliminates any short term fluctuations which may arise from changes in the composition of each division and so lets us see the underlying trends more clearly. From this three distinct groups have emerged

Growers: 1.0% +

This group is headed by Poland which had an average increase of 9.42% over the period and the Ukraine which saw a slightly lower 6.27% Coming behind them was Switzerland with a rate of 4.5%. All three have one thing in common, they have recently hosted European Championships, with Poland/Ukraine in 2012 and Switzerland/Austria in 2008. As we previously saw with Germany (also part of the group with a figure of 1.12%) and the World Cup of 2010 hosting major tournaments boosts domestic league attendances as it increases investment and focuses attention on the development and refurbishment of stadia. Better facilities and bigger capacities put bums on seats.

One surprising member of this group is Italy, particularly given that from other stats we’ve seen Serie A has been in decline for some time. Italy’s appearance here is something of a statistical quirk. What has happened is that Serie A average attendances in the first season covered by the analysis, 2006/07 was a particularly low 18 473 due to the demotion of one of the leagues biggest clubs Juventus. Rebounding back in Serie A the next season produced an average attendance growth of 25.5% . For the period chosen this skews the overall figure upwards – In fact if we discount  this season Serie A’s average rate of growth was a less impressive 0.16, placing it firmly in the next group.

Stagnaters: between 0.99% and -0.99%

The group to which the Premier League, with a rate of 0.78% belongs. I’ve covered some of the reasons for this trend in a WSC magazine article here, but to quickly recap one of the main reasons here is that attendances have been afflicted by a slow-down in new stadium development. A sustained earlier period of increasing attendances has therefore seen demand, in many cases, exceed supply with high stadium occupancy rates and a large number of sell-out games however, rather than leading to renewed construction instead the dynamic has resulted in higher prices.

Decliners: -1.0% and below

Greece’s appearance in this group with a negative growth rate of -3.35% per season, is highly likely to be connected to the countries economic woes. Greek football attendances declined by 15.7% between the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons and  by an even bigger 23.6% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. Another country strongly affected by the crisis, Portugal, saw an average decline of -1.05%

Scotland’s figure,  – 7.12%, is artificially low due to the demotion to the Scottish Third division of Glasgow Rangers which saw a 27.7% decline in average attendances for the top-flight. Unlike Italy this case however, only exasperated an existing decline, ignoring 2012/13’s attendance figure the overall average would still stand at -3.0%.

The bottom group is dominated by Scandinavian countries all of whom have seen fairly sizable declines in football attendances. Along with Scotland this makes Northern Europe a zone of footballing decline, at least in terms of attendances, but why is this?

Advertisements

6 Responses to “European football attendance trends: Is Northern European football in crisis?”

  1. davros64 August 1, 2013 at 1:30 am #

    Are you aware of the concept of the recession?

  2. Neil - Row Z August 1, 2013 at 1:31 pm #

    True, the state of the economy, which may well have had an effect on attendances, is not mentioned here. This is because the object of this exercise is to compare the difference in performance between European nations and as most of them have been affected by the recession it is not a factor which really explains why, for example, Norway has seen a bigger fall than Greece, or why Poland has seen bigger growth than England.

    In terms of Scandinavia, some explanations can be found on this thread http://www.wsc.co.uk/forum-index/27-football/816745-does-no-one-watch-football-in-scandinavia-anymore

  3. Anonymous August 19, 2013 at 10:08 am #

    The Premier League probably doesn’t give the value for money of the Bundesliga for example. But attendances for lower league football in England I believe are a lot better than their continental counterparts. Maybe you could do a blog looking into why that is?

  4. JB August 19, 2013 at 10:10 am #

    On the other hand the lower leagues in England are I think much better attended than equivalent levels in Europe. Maybe you could do an article looking at why?

    • Neil - Row Z August 21, 2013 at 10:06 pm #

      Yes they are – I believe too that the Championship has the fifth highest average attendance in Europe. Great idea for a post – thank you!

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. A Comparison of Average Attendances in European 2nd Tier Divisions | Row Z - August 24, 2013

    […] for the idea for this post goes to JB who made the suggestion of comparing attendances in lower tier leagues across Europe with a view to explaining any […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: